Expose the assumptions

Assumption Sensitivity Explorer

The Dependency Atlas ranks eight capital priorities with nine published factor weights. Change those weights and watch the queue reorder — the fastest way to see which conclusions are robust and which hang on a single editorial assumption.

Weight sensitivity terminal Set the weights, then read the re-ranked queue

Same scoring function the Atlas build uses, on Dependency Atlas data as of 2026-05-13

Official baseline weights applied. The queue matches the published Dependency Atlas ranking.
A

Re-ranked capital queue

Every priority rescored under your weights with the same rounding the Atlas build uses, plus its movement against the published baseline rank.

B

What moved and why

The largest rank gainers and losers under the current weights, each with the contribution change that drove the move.

C

Model, sources, and assumptions

The published scoring rules this page replays, and the citations behind the priority definitions.

priority_score = weighted sum of strategic_vulnerability, population_growth, wartime_resilience, import_concentration, local_capability_gap, export_upside, labor_intensity, capital_efficiency, and time_horizon

contribution[k] = round(factor[k] * weight[k]) for every factor except capital efficiency, which uses round((100 - capitalIntensityPenalty) * weight); score = round(sum of contributions, 2); priorities are ranked by score descending.

Sliders set raw weights that are normalized before scoring: each effective weight is w / Σw, so only the proportions between weights matter. When the raw weights already sum to 1.00 — as at the baseline and in every preset — the effective weights equal the raw weights and the baseline positions reproduce the published queue exactly.

Four factors (strategic vulnerability, wartime resilience, import concentration, local capability gap) are derived as importance-weighted averages over each priority’s linked dependencies. Five (population growth, export upside, labor intensity, capital intensity penalty, time horizon) are manual editorial assessments. Re-weighting changes how much each factor counts — it never changes the factor values themselves.

  1. Google Cloud selected to provide cloud services to the State of Israel Google Cloud
  2. AWS IAM Identity Center is now available in the AWS Israel (Tel Aviv) Region Amazon Web Services
  3. AWS Launches Infrastructure Region in Israel Amazon Web Services / Amazon Press Center
  4. Azure Global Infrastructure Geographies Microsoft Azure
  5. Red Sea Attacks Disrupt Global Trade International Monetary Fund
  6. Review of Maritime Transport 2024 UN Trade and Development
  7. Fewer tankers transit the Red Sea in 2024 U.S. Energy Information Administration
  8. U.S. Security Cooperation with Israel U.S. Department of State
  9. U.S. Foreign Aid to Israel: Overview and Developments since October 7, 2023 Congressional Research Service / Library of Congress
  10. Israel - F-15IA and F-15I+ Aircraft and Related Equipment Defense Security Cooperation Agency
  11. Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2024 Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
  12. Confused about Biden's Israel weapons policy? Here's what you should know. Politico

29 sources are cited across the eight priority definitions; the full registry, per-priority citations, and factor derivations live in the Dependency Atlas.

Same math, exposed

One scoring function, build and browser

The explorer imports the exact scoring module the Dependency Atlas build uses — integer-rounded contributions, the inverted capital-intensity term, and the two-decimal final score. At baseline positions the output must reproduce the published queue precisely, and the build fails if it ever drifts.

Normalization

Only proportions matter

Sliders set raw weights that are divided by their sum before scoring, so the model stays defined for any combination and there is no "correct" total to maintain. Doubling every slider changes nothing; doubling one slider changes everything downstream of it.

Continue research

From rank to evidence

A re-ranked queue is a prompt, not a finding. Use each priority's Atlas entry and investment-case article for the underlying citations, and the Capability Gap Tracker to see which priorities have identifiable companies in the research database.